› ›

Grading broken after update

ZodRauZodRau Posts: 44Member Beginner
General Discussion
My experience: 300m to get two large G2 material ships.
Company member's experience: 75% failing 75% of the time.
Another company member's experience: 400m to get two Clermonts to G1.

I put in a ticket 6 days ago, but nothing but crickets.

Discuss.

Comments

  • HuseyinGaziHuseyinGazi Posts: 158Member Trainee
    The grading isn't broken at all.
    This means  your co-mates are just very unlucky. :x

    Remember this is a gamble and even at high rate you encounter failures, but you can be either lucky that you've a lot of success at < 30 %. You're not the only one who got this in mind, but many shipbuilders are thinking after like 10 attempts... that the rate doesn't make any sense to them.

    But try this at least 100 or even 1000 tries and you will see that in overall that rate is just averaged. We players are just generally impatient about doing Ship Rebuild. That's why this isn't suited for everyone to do, because you expect to get a lot of frustration similar as alchemy transmutation.

    I've done more than 100 times Grade 6 projects and I can tell from here that the value's doesn't actually lie to you in general. Sometimes I get carried over to thinking the same (had once fail on 97 % towards G5 or even retrograde with 87 % rate to attempt G6), but I try to think positive. We choose after all to take this gamble, right? :P

    Anyway, I hope my statement and experience are clear enough to you and others.

    Kind Regards,
    Culvern
    IGN: [CA]Huseyin_Gazi
    Dedicated Adventurer and Maritimer
    Other toon: Disi_Aslan (trader, production, R20 SB'er and Director of OA)
    Osmanli_Aslanlar
  • ZodRauZodRau Posts: 44Member Beginner
    I may be a casual SB, but my company mates are not. They were grading before the patch, and they've noted a higher rate of failures after it. Thanks for your input, Huseyin. Hearing from more Ship Builders about their post-patch experience would be helpful.
  • WesDoobnerWesDoobner Posts: 761Member Intermediate
    I get that you can be very unlucky sometimes, but when you have a 75% chance of success at your colony SY3 with the SRI used and you fail 5 times in a row, that is not only unlucky, but almost statistically impossible. And what that tells me is that even though the success rate is given as 75%, that's only a cosmetic feature and the real success rate is not that high. When you have 1 out of every 5 fusions failing at 88% rate just to get to G1 you know somethings's wrong. Papaya needs to work on their random number generation program or whatever is controlling this, and it needs to takes the past short term failures into account to try to approach the actual success rate advertised. The chances of losing 5 in a row at 75% is around 1000 to 1 odds, but it's happened to me more than once. This is the kind of crap that frustrates people into not wanting to play anymore, even after putting up with all the other stuff going on.
    May the winds blow you well
  • CrzyPsycoChickCrzyPsycoChick Posts: 667Member Intermediate
    Aye listen… I've have G1 LC fail ELEVEN times in a row before succeeding, I've tried to intentionally change form by trying to fail it on purpose with 1% success and had it SUCCEED. This was pre patch. Listen Fusion is very wonky VERY random although something might seem unrealistic doesn't mean it wont happen. 

    This is why it costs so damn much lol if you dont want fails or an extremely low chance they want you to buy the UWC fusion item or use blueprints or fuse with UWC ships.   Blueprints are Waaaayyyyyy cheaper than they used to be on OGP they selling 40-50mil due to boxes thats peanuts compared to the 100mil we had to pay on OGP. 

    Bottom line Fusion was designed to be a money sink aye it is what it is it was DESIGNED to eat your money up...so either spend more cash on blueprints/uwc ships / fusion boost item. Or…  suffer lots of fails it is what it is… 


    Sorry Good luck 

    Culvern
  • WesDoobnerWesDoobner Posts: 761Member Intermediate
    Be that as it may, the percentages need to be correct in the long run, not just something to say "cool my percentage of success is 75%!". If the percentages don't work out in the long run, then it's a problem. When you get fails on 75% chance 5 times in a row, that is not only statistically very unlikely, it also means you would have to get 15 successes in a row with no fails just to get back close to the odds being correct. I know it will never be exact, that's the random part of if, but when it's that far off, there is nothing random about it - just the fact that your so called 75% success rate is really not 75% or even close to it. Bottom line - quit providing fake info, it leads to frustration and distrust.
    May the winds blow you well
  • CrzyPsycoChickCrzyPsycoChick Posts: 667Member Intermediate
    Highly unlikely doesnt mean impossible lol. If I was to flip a coin 100 times its is EXTREMELY Unlikely it will land on heads 100 times while the probability is so low id never take that bet but we cant say its impossible. 

    And while  falling 5 times  at 75% is pretty unlikely you CAN get 11 straight success afterwards its possible but NOT GUARANTEED  you may very well get an additional 11 fails doesn't mean the probability is wrong just you fell in that 25% failure repeatedly. 


    This right here is the ONLY proof something is wrong and if the percentage is purely cosmetic or inaccurate… Does the ships succeed at 0%   or. Does a ship fail at 100% .  IF that happens then your theory is correct even if it happens 1 time can go lower than 0 or higher than 100.   Until that happens or anyone can provide evidence of this occurrence I think the myth grading is broken is busted.  All the ships I had at 100% succeeded and the ships at 0% failed in my experience… 
  • WesDoobnerWesDoobner Posts: 761Member Intermediate
    Again, we're talking about something with a 1000 to 1 odds happening more than once out of less than 50 opportunities for it to happen. Either the odds are fake, or it operating with so much variance that you would have to fuse on a scale of decades for the results to even come close to matching the odds. I get that improbable doesn't mean impossible, but it is impossible for the improbably to happen exclusively.
    May the winds blow you well
  • CrzyPsycoChickCrzyPsycoChick Posts: 667Member Intermediate
    Hey I hear you this is why I said if you dont trust the numbers when they say 75% then you shouldn't trust them when they say 0% or 100% as well right you get what I mean? 

    Thats why I said get some barcas at 0% and 100% and see if they succeed or fail its the only way to know for sure. 

    You cant say I failed 5 times at 75%...its rigged
     
    Then say 

    It failed at 0% 20 times… its not rigged it says 0%

    Or

    It succeded at 100% 30 times… its not rigged it says 100%


    Either the nunbers are broken as a whole or they're not cant have  it both ways hun


    Can you provide fails or succeeds for the above experiment at 0% or 100%? 
  • lefox271lefox271 Posts: 495Member Intermediate
    I agree with Wes. You don't need to be a statistician to see there's something wrong. But where I disagree with Wes is the odds are actually 1:10000. 

    And the odds of someone failing 5 times at the first 5 attempts - well, if 10,0000 people tried it, there'd only be a 0.098% chance that one of them would have failed the first five.

    Statistics is what crooks use to bamboozle honest people. Use your head. If it doesn't look right it probably isn't.

     
  • CrzyPsycoChickCrzyPsycoChick Posts: 667Member Intermediate
    Whats the odds of my g1 failing 11 times straight at 50% pre patch

    Was the game also broken then too?
  • lefox271lefox271 Posts: 495Member Intermediate
    0.048828125% chance. 

    No, you're right. You were just unlucky that day. Very, very unlucky.
  • lefox271lefox271 Posts: 495Member Intermediate
    I'm not saying the game's broken. I don't even SB.

    Just saying I agree with Wes - there's no way the SY was giving a 75% chance of success. The rate is lower. There's no other credible explanation.
  • HelloAllHelloAll Posts: 701Member Intermediate
    I don’t understand why it has to fail in the first place, same with mods. Grading and modding costs enough as it is so why should it ever go wrong? Oh that’s right greed
  • purplepiratepurplepirate Posts: 994Member Intermediate
    This thread is 'deja vu' from the one about the captain ticket contents. Some people got amazing items from only opening a few tickets while others opened dozens of tickets and got nothing of value. lol

    Is that system broken to?
    IGN: Samantha99
  • ZodRauZodRau Posts: 44Member Beginner
    Percentages are not given for Captain's tickets, so there is no comparison. This also is not just my experience. Others have discovered a higher failure rate in grading since the update, yet no change in the shown percentage chance.
  • purplepiratepurplepirate Posts: 994Member Intermediate
    yes, but different items have varying ratio's for generation. The superior windjammer has a much lower percentage to get than a pet love collar.
    IGN: Samantha99
  • WesDoobnerWesDoobner Posts: 761Member Intermediate
    which is crazy, since we all enjoy getting the love collars so much.
    May the winds blow you well
  • CulvernCulvern Posts: 646Member Intermediate
    The odds of failing at 75% is 1 in 4.
    Your odds the next one fails at 75% is...... 1 in 4.
    The odds do not increase each time you try it. It's 1 in 4 odds of failure even if you try it 1000 times.
  • lefox271lefox271 Posts: 495Member Intermediate
    Yeah that's true, the chance the next one will be a failure is always 1:4 because that is predicting one at a time.

    But the chance of getting a particular sequence of failures is calculated differently, and the probability reduces with each step in the sequence.

    It's 0.25 X 0.25 X 0.25 ... And so on.
  • CulvernCulvern Posts: 646Member Intermediate
    Did some grading today and saw no difference from results prior to the updates.
    I actually was having great luck making g1s
Sign In or Register to comment.